Trikaal Macros is a weekly newsletter on economy and markets, focusing on long-term market drivers and its future outlook. In the short run, a whole lot of factors can drive markets up or down, but in the long run, it is either the government policies, structural factors, or technological innovations, that will drive the economy and markets. Certain government policies impact may last for decades like India’s LPG of 1990s (liberalization, privatization, globalization), but mostly those are generic policies that boost the whole economy.

Within the broad economy, there are always certain sectors that outperform others. And in most of such cases, they are driven by technological innovations. So, understanding these tech developments are crucial to identify the top sectors for long-term investing. This newsletter aims to do that.

Halo effect in investing

There are many people who love Apple’s iPhone, watch, and other items. Many would blindly buy even if it starts making washing machines, they trust Apple. Sachin Tendulkar is one of the greatest in cricket. But masses also believe him when he says on TV that mutual funds are the right thing! SRK, Ajay Devgan, […]

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Buy on dip?

If there are reasons to believe that economy is strong and companies will continue to grow and report higher sales and profits, and there will not be any global major risk – then buy the dip. But how do we find out that people will buy more, spend more, travel more, and overall help economy

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End of the Stocks Rally

Global stocks rally post pandemic was fueled by easy money (high liquidity and low interest rates), and that same thing is now going to kill this rally. In fact, long before the pandemic, most of the major countries had already been printing money at unprecedented rates since the 2008 global financial crisis. Excess money supply

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Fuel Cells – An opportunity to replace fossil fuels

Hydrogen Fuel Cells have potential to replace traditional power plants and IC engines. And that makes it a real big investment opportunity. Hydrogen fuel cells are more efficient than traditional internal combustion engines because they convert chemical energy directly into electrical energy, reducing energy loss from heat. They also emit only water vapor, while traditional

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The Sixth Wave – What will drive markets for next 50 years?

Coined by economist Joseph Schumpeter in 1942, the theory of “creative destruction” suggests that business cycles operate under long waves of innovation. Specifically, as markets are disrupted, key clusters of industries have outsized effects on the economy. Take the railway industry, for example. At the turn of the 19th century, railways completely reshaped urban demographics

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Semiconductor Metrology – At the Core of Chip Market Explosive Growth

Semiconductors are at the heart of AI revolution, and demand is set to grow for years to come.   Manufacturing semis is complex and there are just a handful of companies making them. Small is beautiful here and manufacturers continuously strive to produce smaller semiconductors. The reason for this is the improved performance and reduced

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