EV sector is at the start of a secular growth phase, and it will be a key driver of global economy. Ever since the first industrial revolution in 18th century, there have been a number of major technical innovations that became the core driver of global economy for 30-60 years. (See details at – The […]
Trikaal Macros is a weekly newsletter on economy and markets, focusing on long-term market drivers and its future outlook. In the short run, a whole lot of factors can drive markets up or down, but in the long run, it is either the government policies, structural factors, or technological innovations, that will drive the economy and markets. Certain government policies impact may last for decades like India’s LPG of 1990s (liberalization, privatization, globalization), but mostly those are generic policies that boost the whole economy.
Within the broad economy, there are always certain sectors that outperform others. And in most of such cases, they are driven by technological innovations. So, understanding these tech developments are crucial to identify the top sectors for long-term investing. This newsletter aims to do that.
Coined by economist Joseph Schumpeter in 1942, the theory of “creative destruction” suggests that business cycles operate under long waves of innovation. Specifically, as markets are disrupted, key clusters of industries have outsized effects on the economy. Take the railway industry, for example. At the turn of the 19th century, railways completely reshaped urban demographics
Semiconductors are at the heart of AI revolution, and demand is set to grow for years to come. Manufacturing semis is complex and there are just a handful of companies making them. Small is beautiful here and manufacturers continuously strive to produce smaller semiconductors. The reason for this is the improved performance and reduced
Available 24/7 unlike solar and wind. Renewable Energy – Part 3. It is an inexhaustible resource. It would take 5 billion years for the heat at the Earth’s core to run out, which is the life span of the earth. The Earth itself is a renewable energy source, its heat is always available; it doesn’t
340% more returns compared to S&P500. Super Strong Entry Barriers. Most of the MedTech successful companies are 50-100 years old or even more, they have become so well entrenched, that it is next to impossible to dislodge them from their positions because of very high entry barriers. The sector (ETF: IHF) has grown at an
The clean hydrogen energy market is growing amazingly fast, far faster than wind or solar ever did in the early years. It is a unique sector enjoying unprecedented political and business momentum. In just the past five years, more than 30 countries have developed national hydrogen strategies (IEA 2022). Almost every week a major new
Solar is among the fastest growing renewable energy sectors but recently the solar utility sector (size greater than 1 MW) has started facing a lot of hurdles. But the same issues which are problems for utility space, have created a great opportunity in a closely related field. Solar energy is still a long-term growth story.
AI started 25 years ago, but it is now that it is having a breakthrough moment. This article looks at what may be the best way to invest in AI stocks. Key points. $6 Trillion Mega Opportunity. AI will accelerate digital transformation and tech diffusion across the economy. That will let both companies and investors
Copper is the new lithium. A decade of low capex, trillions being spent on energy transition, China reopening, inventories at lowest levels of 18 years, not enough copper supply coming online in next few years – investing in copper is a slam dunk case. Key Points Copper faces critical supply shortages It was the only
US unemployment lowest since 1969. But 3,55,000 were laid off in tech last year! Economic data can be confusing. Unemployment rate in U.S. is at its lowest level since 1969, but tech layoffs are at historical high after the 2001 dot-com bust! If companies are laying off then how can we have declining unemployment rate?