Trikaal Macros is a weekly newsletter on economy and markets, focusing on long-term market drivers and its future outlook. In the short run, a whole lot of factors can drive markets up or down, but in the long run, it is either the government policies, structural factors, or technological innovations, that will drive the economy and markets. Certain government policies impact may last for decades like India’s LPG of 1990s (liberalization, privatization, globalization), but mostly those are generic policies that boost the whole economy.

Within the broad economy, there are always certain sectors that outperform others. And in most of such cases, they are driven by technological innovations. So, understanding these tech developments are crucial to identify the top sectors for long-term investing. This newsletter aims to do that.

Bullish or Bearish?

US unemployment lowest since 1969. But 3,55,000 were laid off in tech last year! Economic data can be confusing. Unemployment rate in U.S. is at its lowest level since 1969, but tech layoffs are at historical high after the 2001 dot-com bust! If companies are laying off then how can we have declining unemployment rate?

Bullish or Bearish? Read More »

Global recession or a rally?

The world’s largest economy is giving clear indications of a global recession, yet stocks are in a rally. Let us first look at some factual indicators before deciding which one is more real – Inverted Yield Curve. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending global recession. When short-term

Global recession or a rally? Read More »

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