Trikaal Macros is a weekly newsletter on economy and markets, focusing on long-term market drivers and its future outlook. In the short run, a whole lot of factors can drive markets up or down, but in the long run, it is either the government policies, structural factors, or technological innovations, that will drive the economy and markets. Certain government policies impact may last for decades like India’s LPG of 1990s (liberalization, privatization, globalization).
Within the broad economy, there are always certain sectors that outperform others. And in most of such cases, they are driven by technological innovations. So, understanding these tech developments are crucial to identify the top sectors for long-term investing. This newsletter aims to do that.
Markets are still well below the top of September 2021, and there are clear risks ahead. Markets may see a short-term bounce back but that should be taken as an exit opportunity if one is still invested into equities. There are mainly three reasons for a bounce back – And none of these points are […]
Big Crisis? 1. SVB failed with $200 billion in 24 hours 2. Stock markets lost $2 trillion in 5 days 3. Crypto markets lost $100 billion in 24 hours 4. U.S. banks lost $100 billion in 2 days 5. Bonds post biggest move since 2008 This week, not only are we dealing with the collapse
Second Largest Bank Failure in US – Contagion Crisis Looming Read More »
Hi all! It is well known that stock markets go up if investors expect economy to grow. And stock markets boom if they expect economy to grow for years! Stocks move sharply and valuations rise if there is a confidence that economy will definitely grow. The more the confidence, the higher is the demand for
A Big Positive for Indian Economy after 14 years! Read More »
Hi all, India is going to record the fastest 5G rollout in the world and it is going to have the biggest success of the next -generation telecom service with the support of the government. India is at the right time, we have a 5G-ready ecosystem. We have 10 per cent of smartphones in India
A major part of India lives in rural, but a massive number of people are migrating to urban. This process has been going on for decades now and is picking up more pace. Some think that this urbanization is not good for the nation, but if we look back at history of other nations, we
Urbanization – Biggest Long-term Investment Opportunities Read More »
Though Sensex is on a strong up trend but global economy is weak and risk of a global recession is rising. We have been focusing on the US economy as it is world’s largest economy and its currency is the world’s reserve currency. The last recession had originated in US and the next global recession
Though Sensex is on a strong up trend but global economy is weak and risk of a global recession is rising. We have been focusing on the US economy as it is world’s largest economy and its currency is the world’s reserve currency. The last recession had originated in US and the next global recession
We have been mentioning that we are bullish on IT sector since the start of October. Though the global IT sector outlook looks weak as many companies are laying off their employees, but the Indian IT sector is strong. Indian economy is growing at a strong pace as seen by recent quarterly results, even though
Indian IT sector is expected to witness good growth Read More »
Last Friday saw a massive jump in US stock markets, highest one day rise in last two years! This was mainly triggered by CPI (inflation) data which came out quite lower than expected. Global inflation had been the biggest risk for stocks and though our markets are at nearly same level as that of January
One of the very accurate indicators for future of stock market trend is the growth in bank credit. The more consumers and companies borrow from banks, the more will be the economic growth leading to a rise in stock prices. And we have a very good position now, the bank credit growth at near 18
Credit Growth at Nine Years High, Strong Bullish Signal. Read More »
