Trikaal Macros is a weekly newsletter on economy and markets, focusing on long-term market drivers and its future outlook. In the short run, a whole lot of factors can drive markets up or down, but in the long run, it is either the government policies, structural factors, or technological innovations, that will drive the economy and markets. Certain government policies impact may last for decades like India’s LPG of 1990s (liberalization, privatization, globalization).
Within the broad economy, there are always certain sectors that outperform others. And in most of such cases, they are driven by technological innovations. So, understanding these tech developments are crucial to identify the top sectors for long-term investing. This newsletter aims to do that.
340% more returns compared to S&P500. Super Strong Entry Barriers. Most of the MedTech successful companies are 50-100 years old or even more, they have become so well entrenched, that it is next to impossible to dislodge them from their positions because of very high entry barriers. The sector (ETF: IHF) has grown at an […]
The clean hydrogen energy market is growing amazingly fast, far faster than wind or solar ever did in the early years. It is a unique sector enjoying unprecedented political and business momentum. In just the past five years, more than 30 countries have developed national hydrogen strategies (IEA 2022). Almost every week a major new
Green Hydrogen market to grow by 55.2% CAGR (2022 – 2028): Renewable Energy Part 2 Read More »
Solar is among the fastest growing renewable energy sectors but recently the solar utility sector (size greater than 1 MW) has started facing a lot of hurdles. But the same issues which are problems for utility space, have created a great opportunity in a closely related field. Solar energy is still a long-term growth story.
Renewable Energy – The Fastest Growing Sectors (Part 1) Read More »
AI started 25 years ago, but it is now that it is having a breakthrough moment. This article looks at what may be the best way to invest in AI stocks. Key points. $6 Trillion Mega Opportunity. AI will accelerate digital transformation and tech diffusion across the economy. That will let both companies and investors
Copper is the new lithium. A decade of low capex, trillions being spent on energy transition, China reopening, inventories at lowest levels of 18 years, not enough copper supply coming online in next few years – investing in copper is a slam dunk case. Key Points Copper faces critical supply shortages It was the only
US unemployment lowest since 1969. But 3,55,000 were laid off in tech last year! Economic data can be confusing. Unemployment rate in U.S. is at its lowest level since 1969, but tech layoffs are at historical high after the 2001 dot-com bust! If companies are laying off then how can we have declining unemployment rate?
Media (including this newsletter!) is full of inflation and recession warnings, three U.S. banks have collapsed in past two months, ominous macro-economic data are screaming serious risks, and yet the global stock prices are marching ahead. U.S. GDP growth came at a weak 1.1% for March quarter against expected 2% but markets kept on rising,
Arkansas Law now Recognizes Gold and Silver Legal Tender in the State. And 23 more states are aiming for similar legislation. If gold is coming back as a currency in U.S., it will have serious implications for dollar’s global role. It is clear that U.S. citizens are losing faith in the dollars. Impact: Dollar’s fall
The world’s largest economy is giving clear indications of a global recession, yet stocks are in a rally. Let us first look at some factual indicators before deciding which one is more real – Inverted Yield Curve. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending global recession. When short-term
Subprime loans were the root cause of 2008 financial crisis, it started in U.S. but the impact was severely felt in all the countries across the globe. Another crisis is now brewing in U.S. in commercial real estate and again it will affect the whole world. Key points – CRE owners are in a seriously
