Trikaal Macros is a weekly newsletter on economy and markets, focusing on long-term market drivers and its future outlook. In the short run, a whole lot of factors can drive markets up or down, but in the long run, it is either the government policies, structural factors, or technological innovations, that will drive the economy and markets. Certain government policies impact may last for decades like India’s LPG of 1990s (liberalization, privatization, globalization).
Within the broad economy, there are always certain sectors that outperform others. And in most of such cases, they are driven by technological innovations. So, understanding these tech developments are crucial to identify the top sectors for long-term investing. This newsletter aims to do that.
There are many people who love Apple’s iPhone, watch, and other items. Many would blindly buy even if it starts making washing machines, they trust Apple. Sachin Tendulkar is one of the greatest in cricket. But masses also believe him when he says on TV that mutual funds are the right thing! SRK, Ajay Devgan, […]
If there are reasons to believe that economy is strong and companies will continue to grow and report higher sales and profits, and there will not be any global major risk – then buy the dip. But how do we find out that people will buy more, spend more, travel more, and overall help economy
Global stocks rally post pandemic was fueled by easy money (high liquidity and low interest rates), and that same thing is now going to kill this rally. In fact, long before the pandemic, most of the major countries had already been printing money at unprecedented rates since the 2008 global financial crisis. Excess money supply
Gold prices are skyrocketing. The price of the yellow metal futures in the US has hit an all-time high at $2350. In India, the yellow metal trades at Rs 71,000 per 10 grams and is up 69 percent in rupee terms since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. In last 5 years,
Hydrogen Fuel Cells have potential to replace traditional power plants and IC engines. And that makes it a real big investment opportunity. Hydrogen fuel cells are more efficient than traditional internal combustion engines because they convert chemical energy directly into electrical energy, reducing energy loss from heat. They also emit only water vapor, while traditional
Fuel Cells – An opportunity to replace fossil fuels Read More »
Global Risks are at Unprecedented High Levels The key reason for a global recession in near future is a continuing inflation. This inflation may rise for years like it did in 1970s. Its rise will be due to the unprecedented rise in money supply since the 2008 recession. Before the 1970s inflation, wars and other
EV sector is at the start of a secular growth phase, and it will be a key driver of global economy. Ever since the first industrial revolution in 18th century, there have been a number of major technical innovations that became the core driver of global economy for 30-60 years. (See details at – The
The EV Revolution and its Biggest Investment Opportunities Read More »
Coined by economist Joseph Schumpeter in 1942, the theory of “creative destruction” suggests that business cycles operate under long waves of innovation. Specifically, as markets are disrupted, key clusters of industries have outsized effects on the economy. Take the railway industry, for example. At the turn of the 19th century, railways completely reshaped urban demographics
The Sixth Wave – What will drive markets for next 50 years? Read More »
Semiconductors are at the heart of AI revolution, and demand is set to grow for years to come. Manufacturing semis is complex and there are just a handful of companies making them. Small is beautiful here and manufacturers continuously strive to produce smaller semiconductors. The reason for this is the improved performance and reduced
Semiconductor Metrology – At the Core of Chip Market Explosive Growth Read More »
Available 24/7 unlike solar and wind. Renewable Energy – Part 3. It is an inexhaustible resource. It would take 5 billion years for the heat at the Earth’s core to run out, which is the life span of the earth. The Earth itself is a renewable energy source, its heat is always available; it doesn’t
Geothermal Energy – Enough for next 5 billion years! Read More »
